Mid-year market trends: What advisors should be talking about with clients
Let’s skip the 80-page white papers and academic “modeling”—here’s what’s really happening in the markets this year, and what advisors need to talk to their clients about right now. If you work with folks aged 55–70 sporting serious nest eggs, this is for you.
Market snapshot: The good, the bad, the ugly
At first glance, the S&P is flexing—up 6.6% in six months, and cruising into double-digit growth for the year. But before you pop the champagne, look under the hood: U.S. consumers are hurting. Subprime auto delinquencies? Record highs. When people stop paying for their cars—their lifeline to work—you know there’s stress brewing below the surface.
Overvaluation: Warning lights are flashing
Let’s talk numbers. S&P 500 price-to-earnings? Nearly dot-com bubble territory. Price-to-sales? Even worse—off the historical charts. Here’s the kicker: every time we’ve hit these heights, long-term returns tanked. As of July, the Shiller PE says we’re staring at a possible 2% annual return for the next decade. That’s not just “meh”—that’s a flashing yellow light for anyone banking on big growth.
Politics: Does the market even care?
Every election cycle, clients fret: “Should I move my money if the other party wins?” History says chill out. Markets rise no matter who’s in charge. Party politics make headlines, but fiscal and monetary decisions move the needle.
Tariffs & inflation: The real costs
Tariffs. Love them or hate them, here’s the bottom line: American companies pay them, and half the time, so do consumers—check your grocery bill. Average rates rocketed from 2.5% to 16.6%. If new tariffs drop as promised, we’ll top 20%. History lesson: 1930s-level tariffs didn’t end well. For now, inflation sits at 2.7%, but watch the next couple months—if we see a jump, those tariffs are biting.
Trump vs. Powell: Black Swan watch
One of the wildcards: talk of removing Fed Chair Jerome Powell. It’s a long shot, but if it happens? Buckle up. Fed independence is sacred to Wall Street. Upending that could send shockwaves through stocks and bonds. Most aren’t pricing this in—and that’s a risk.
Seizing opportunity: What are you offering that's different?
Here’s where advisors can truly shine. The affluent crowd is growing—over 1,000 new millionaires a day last year! And get this: most say their advisor’s recommendations are too cookie-cutter. Want to stand out? Offer what the S&P can’t. For clients looking for tax diversification and market risk mitigation, consider blending in properly structured indexed universal life, fixed indexed annuities and other advanced planning strategies.
According to a recent Ernst and Young report comparing different planning strategies, one that combines traditional investing (market only) and indexed universal life can potentially bump retirement income 15% and boost legacy wealth 17%, versus “just invest and pray.”
Let’s connect
If you serve clients 59–72 with $1M+ in assets, we’ve got advanced strategies tailored for today’s challenges. Curious about the details, or want to see the actual numbers? Call us at 866.866.7050 ext. 2 or reach out to your Peak Pro Financial Sales Development Advisor.
FOR ADVISOR USE ONLY
This material is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to provide any recommendations or tax or legal advice. We encourage you to discuss your tax and legal needs with a qualified tax and/or legal professional.
Please note that this material is not intended to be used, nor can it be used by any taxpayer, for the purpose of avoiding U.S. federal, state or local tax penalties. Consult your legal and/or tax professional regarding any legal or tax matters.
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